How the Electoral College Is Shaping Up

I am a polling nerd, and nearly every day for four or five months have been tracking first the primary and then the general election polls in every state, state-by-state. Looking at so many polls for every single state I've gotten a real sense of polls that are misleading outliers, and leads that remain remarkably consistent, if small, over time. My prediction, with a couple months still to go, and obviously lots of possibility for the race to swing unexpectedly in one direction or another, is that this race could damn well end in a 269-269 electoral tie and (!) go to the House of Representatives. Which is fine by me, because they'll elect Obama. Just an interesting possibility. Here's how the states break in my scenario:

McCain: Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio, Alaska

Obama: Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, Rhode Island, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii

As you can see, I'm giving almost all the famous swing states from previous elections to McCain, just because over time the polls have generally leant in his direction in most of them. The most likely two swing states to defect from my McCain column to Obama on election night, and pretty much clinch it for him, are Colorado and Virginia, where his leads are very weak. I think Florida and Ohio are pretty solidly in McCain's camp, though, so don't look for any big Obama jackpot in either spot.

Obama's "269" strategy relies on winning all the states he's generally expected to win in the Midwest and Northeast and West Coast, and just adding two "swing" states: New Mexico and Nevada, where, with the exception of a very few polls, he has shown and still shows slim, consistent leads. I think these two increasingly diverse, growing, and complex Western states are ready to go progressive this year (or in New Mexico's case, go back after a bit of slippage). Nevada is much closer than New Mexico. It's amazing that after being so conservative for so long, this little ignored state might have the chance to decide a President.

What do you think?