Notes before I begin: as the title mentions, I'm not talking division championships, just a wild card spot. And my buddy Aaron deserves a shout-out for mentioning a few of these points to me. Now, those out of the way, I'd like to explain how I'm tired with the arguments that the A's are doomed and that the schedule will destroy them. Let's look at the facts and the schedule right now.
Essentially it's a four-team race for two spots, with the A's, Baltimore, LA, and the Rays. Of course the Yankees and Rangers could drop into it if they lose a bunch, but the Rangers losing the West is highly unlikely (and if they do it, it will be to the A's), and the Yankees have a very favorable schedule. If the Yankees end up losing a bunch of games and the division, so what? Their losing can only benefit the A's, since it won't be to any team in the wild card race. The Central is all but mathematically eliminated for a spot. So let's go to the schedules.
The A's:
--Six games, all at home.
--Three against the Mariners, who are a middlingish-not-terrible team but have nothing to play for.
--They miss the Mariners' best starters and get the late-season dregs of the rotation.
--Three against Texas, some or all of which might well be after Texas has already clinched the division and top seed in the playoffs and wants to rest its best players. If Texas hasn't taken care of business against LA and clinched the division, then hey, bonus.
The Rays:
--Three games against a desperate and pretty good White Sox team on the road.
--Three games at home against a good Baltimore team also sure to be fighting for its playoff life.
Baltimore:
--Three games at home against the Red Sox. No big whoop.
--Three season-ending games on the road against the Rays, who will be throwing out all the stops.
The Angels:
--Three games on the road against a great Texas team looking to seal up the division and the top seed.
--Three games on the road against the Mariners, and before you say anything, including Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma starts.
And finally, the A's start these last six games with a two-game lead on any team who can eliminate them from the playoffs.
Such is my argument. All of this depends, of course, on how the A's actually play. If they barf nuggets (how do I think that's an actual term? Where did that come from?) against Seattle at home, for example, all bets are off. I'm just talking about probabilities here. Feel free to hit me back with your thoughts.
